ahora y por alguna extraña razón que no nos van a contar, parece que el "Nobel de la Paz" (que sin embargo organiza guerras) la ha tomado con Alemania, y se afirma que "su política económica daña a Europa, al Mundo, y a la propia Alemania" (sic).. por lo que parece que ya tenemos el origen de "la crisis que vino de fuera" (sic).. claro, claro.. es evidente que todos los males del Mundo suceden porque Alemania es muy mala, claro, claro..
que 8 años después de "la crisis que vino de fuera" aún se siga proclamando que "la solución" para salir de una crisis de sobre-endeudamiento es endeudarse aún más para "acelerar la economía por el estímulo Keynesiano" significa que aún no se ha entendido nada de "la crisis que vino de fuera"..
pero peor lo hacen en hispanistán, donde creen que la economía va por ciclos y que, sin tocar nada de un cesto podrido lleno de manzanas podridas, la economía se va a recuperar.. claro, claro..
disfruten lo votado..
German economic policy is hurting Europe, the world, and itself - Business Insider
FROM Washington to Athens, politicians and economists who often have
little in common all agree that Germany under Chancellor Angela Merkel
is largely wrong about economic policy.
Germany's apparent economic strengths--the lowest unemployment in two
decades; steady, if low, growth; a balanced federal budget--mask
weaknesses and policy errors, they say.
A first mistake is to insist that troubled euro-zone countries such as
Greece not only make structural reforms to their economies, but
simultaneously cut spending and borrowing (depressing demand).
But a second is domestic. Given low interest rates, now would be a
golden opportunity to borrow and invest more at home, boosting the
economy and providing a Keynesian stimulus to the entire sluggish euro
zone. Instead, Germany is investing less than in the past and less than
most other countries (see chart).
Raising investment could also deal with another imbalance in the German
economy: its current-account surplus, the largest in the world, which
has just set another record in 2014 of EUR220 billion ($250 billion),
over 7% of GDP. By definition, this surplus measures the excess of
savings over investment. Invest more, and the surplus would shrink or
even disappear.
Such thinking has fans even in Germany. Marcel Fratzscher at the German
Institute for Economic Research in Berlin thinks that German strength is
an "illusion" given its large "investment gap". Public investment in
Germany--shared by the federal, state and local governments--has fallen
from 6% of GDP in 1970 (in the West) to 2% now. Roads, bridges,
broadband internet and much else could do with more money.
The German Marshall Fund has said that 40% of bridges in Germany are in
"critical condition". The Cologne Institute for Economic Research,
another think-tank, reckons that the capital stock of German machines
has not risen in real terms since 2008. Markus Kerber, director of the
German Federation of Industries, a trade association, says that a
"long-term investment-offensive is needed" to sustain growth.
angela merkel david cameronREUTERS/Rebecca NadenBritain's Prime Minister
David Cameron (R) greets German Chancellor Angela Merkel at the start
of the NATO summit at the Celtic Manor resort, near Newport, in Wales
September 4, 2014.
But other German economists are sceptical about claims of
underinvestment. Christoph Schmidt, chairman of the German Council of
Economic Experts, which advises the government, thinks published ratios
of investment as a percentage of GDP can be misleading when compared
both across time and between countries.
France, for example, has a lot of public housing. Germany does not, and
this skews the numbers. Reunification in 1990 caused a one-off
investment boom in both parts of the country. And whereas other
countries had property crashes, Germany did not. In that case, at least,
skimping on housebuilding was sensible.
Yet the trend of declining public and private investment remains clear. A
recalculation to fit European Union norms lifts Germany's investment
ratio from 17% to 19%, by including companies' research and development
spending. But that is still low. Why is this?
Most investing is done by private firms. But German ones have for years
preferred to invest abroad, not at home. Mr Fratzscher regrets this: he
reckons that German investment abroad has yielded an annual return of
10% over 20 years whereas foreign investment in Germany has made more
like 15%.
The main reason for low domestic investment, says Michael Hüther, the
Cologne institute's director, is uncertainty and nervousness over the
future. Continuing anxiety over Greece and the euro has been especially
damaging.
greece protestAlkis Konstantinidis/ReutersProtesters shout slogans
during a rally against the visit of German Chancellor Angela Merkel in
Athens, April 11, 2014. The banner reads "Merkel Out" in German.
More recently worries about Russia, which is more commercially entangled
with Germany than with other big Western economies, have unsettled the
business climate. But the biggest problem for many businessmen may be
benighted government policies.
These start with Germany's "energy transition," a plan to exit
simultaneously from fossil fuels and nuclear energy. The main policy is a
huge subsidy to solar and wind. The surcharge that many firms have to
pay on a unit of energy is larger than the entire cost of electricity
paid by firms in America. Half the firms polled by Mr Hüther's institute
claim that this makes any new investment unattractive.
Many also complain, in a country that has an ageing, shrinking
population, about a shortage of skilled workers despite Germany's
admired apprenticeship system. Mrs Merkel's government, under the
influence of her Social Democratic coalition partners, has made things
worse by letting some workers retire at 63, rather than at 67, as
previously envisaged.
In the housing market, owners are put off investment by a cap on rents
in many cities. A new federal minimum wage is yet another measure that
will add costs for business.
The best way to boost investment is to fix these policy errors, argues
Mr Schmidt. On energy, even if the government insists on sticking to its
emissions targets, it could leave the choice of technology to the
market.
The pension age could be raised again; the minimum wage should be lower.
And public investment should be raised. Gustav Horn, head of the
Macroeconomic Policy Institute, part of a foundation with links to the
trade unions, reckons that a 1% increase in euro-zone public investment
would boost GDP by 1.6%.
Yet Germany led resistance to calls for more public money to be put into
the European Commission's planned investment programme. At home it is
constrained by the constitutional "debt brake", adopted in 2009, which
requires state governments to balance their budgets by 2020 and the
federal one to do so by 2016.
Wolfgang Schäuble, the finance minister, has beaten the timetable,
balancing the budget in 2014. He and Mrs Merkel are proud of the "black
zero", which demonstrates that Germans sticks by the rules, as others
should. The books may balance, but Germany is a long way from rectifying
its investment shortfall at home.
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